VAAs as sources of volatility and fragmentation: self-selection effects and genuine effects

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Abstract

Recent studies show that using Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) affects party
preferences of voters, and hence leads to party switching. Party switching is a
necessary but insufficient condition for volatility (a net switch of voters to
other parties) and fragmentation (more parties gaining seats) at the aggregate
level of electoral constituencies. The research question addressed here is
whether the availability of VAAs in electoral constituencies weakens or
strengthens trends towards greater volatility and fragmentation as observed
in western democracies in the last decades. The data come from 380 Dutch
municipalities during the 2014 Dutch municipal council elections. In 133 of
them a VAA was available. Using a moderated mediation model that controls
for the municipal self-selection of a VAA, we find that a VAA by itself leads to
higher levels of volatility and fragmentation. However, VAA availability has a
dampening effect in municipal constituencies with characteristics (e.g.
population size, ethnic diversity, young average age) that would otherwise
make them more susceptible and prone to volatility and fragmentation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)75-96
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties
Volume27
Issue number1
Early online date28 Dec 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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